Temperature Forecasting as a Means of Mitigating Climate Change and Its Effects: A Case Study of Mali

Temperature forecasts and trend analyzes were carried out for several locations in Mali as an important tool warning of potentially threatening weather events such severe heat waves, storms, droughts floods, which could pose a great risk to humans their environment. Five (Segou, Sikasso, Kayes, Gao Taoudenni) across (170 00’N – 40 00’W) chosen this research work. Satellite data annual temperature obtained from the European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) database 35 years (1985-2019) was used The Mann-Kendall test various observe study trend. Four Models including Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Exponential smoothening (ETS), TBATS (Trigonometric seasonality, Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend Seasonal components) linear model employed forecast average 10 all locations. that produces best at 95% confidence level is expected have lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value. results showed no significant trends recorded considered produced Segou, Kayes Taoudenni, while ARIMA Sikasso.